2020-05-22 • Updated
The Canadian dollar broke out through the 1.40 psychological mark. What’s the reason?
Market uncertainty
The loonie is quite sensitive to the market mood. Today’s news turned it down. Firstly, China refused to set the GDP target. Secondly, it decided to impose new Hong Kong security law, that raised more doubts and fears about the future recovery. And finally, the US-China relationship remains tense, as Donald Trump continues to blame China for the coronavirus spread. The Canadian dollar dipped under that pressure.
Oil drop
Based on all news above, oil prices plummeted, as well. No wonder that now investors prefer safe-haven assets such as USD and JPY rather than the commodity-linked Canadian dollar.
It’s really interesting to observe next movements of CAD, as fears of the second wave may grow too strong and become well-founded. That can push USD/CAD higher. Also, today Canadian retail sales will be reported at 15.30 that will determine the future price for USD/CAD in the short-term. If the indicator is worse than expected, the Canadian dollar will fall.
Technical outlook
The USD/CAD formed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern, that’s a signal of the upcoming breakout or breakdown. At the time, it’s unclear where the price is headed. It’s better to wait a little bit for some hints. If the price breaks through the retracement level at 1.41, bulls will win and USD/CAD will head up to the next level at 1.42. Support is at 1.385.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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